A new climate emulator has been published by a team at the University of Chicago and an accompanying interactive emulator tool made available. STATMOS members Michael Stein and Liz Moyer contributed to the emulator, which provides precise estimates of the future of temperature change as predicted by a range of climate models under various CO_2 scenarios.
The emulator is fit to simulations made as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, which combines 14 different global climate models. The online tool shows results for an emulator trained on three CO_2 scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report. These scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) describe different possibilities for the future stabilization of emissions and CO_2 concentrations. The tool also allows users to upload their own scenarios and investigate the resulting temperature change.
This tool fits the climate model region-by-region, which allows users to examine region-specific climate impacts. Though this emulator tool is simpler than the one described in Castruccio, et al. (2014), for a range of reasonable CO_2 scenarios, it can quickly provide accurate annual average model temperatures, e.g. for economic models that use those as inputs.
Citation: Castruccio, S., D.J. McInerney, M.L. Stein, F. Liu Crouch, R.L. Jacob, and E.J. Moyer, 2014: Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs. J. Climate, 27, 1829–1844, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00099.1